Above, you will see the odds and lines for pretty much every major market for Drake Maye in the Super Bowl. Here is how Maye performed this season relative to the current lines posted in that table. To be clear, much more analysis is required than just averages and hit rates, but it is a good starting place. All of the stats below include the three playoff games: Drake Maye over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel There is a common thought in circles that quarterbacks tend to run more in the important games, and especially in the playoffs. While that does not always hold true, it has in Drake Mayes early playoff career. In 21 career regular season games this season, Maye only eclipsed this mark in five of 21 games, averaging 25 rushing yards per game. However, he went over the 36.5 number in two of the three playoff games, averaging 47 rushing yards per game. He only had 10 yards against the Texans, but 66 in the Wild Card game against the Chargers and 65 in the AFC Championship against the Broncos. His legs were really the only source of offense the Patriots had in that game against Denver. While the weather certainly had a lot to do with that, it was also clear that he could use his legs when needed, and the gue s here is that he will need to in this matchup against Seattle. The Seahawks finished with the best pa sing defensive DVOA in the NFL, and to end the season six of the last eight QBs to face them went under their pa sing prop. That said, five straight QBs have hit their rushing prop over against Seattle, and, over the course of the entire season, 61% of QBs went over against them. For context, 12 QBs against the Seahawks had a rushing over/under set above 10, and eight of those 12 went over, including seven of the last eight. The two highest rushing over/unders went to Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels and they both also went over. So, the gue s here is that the Patriots are not able to have a ton of succe s pa sing the ball and running with the running backs specifically, leaving to Drake Maye to use his legs to generate offense. Drake Maye Anytime Touchdown (+320) FanDuel If we are going to project a good rushing game for Maye, it makes sense to also sprinkle an anytime touchdown play. Keep in mind that this one is of the long-shot variety and should be Todd Helton Jersey considered as such, but there is some logic for it. The only touchdown the Patriots scored in the AFC Championship came off a Drake Maye scramble, so why not let history repeat itself in the Super Bowl. Of the rushing QBs mentioned above, Jayden Daniels, Cam Ward and Bryce Young all managed to score touchdowns against the Seahawks on the ground. Purdy did not in any of his three games against the Seahawks, and neither did Kyler Murray, but that is still a decent history of quarterbacks using their legs to score against Seattle. Even if the Patriots get into a short-yardage red-zone situation, the Seahawks are not nece sarily the defense to pound the ball with your running backs. On the year, they finished with the best defensive rushing EPA/play, the seventh-best stuff rate and the second-lowest adjusted yards per carry. All those advanced stats show that it was almost impo sible to generate any push against the Seahawks, and especially in the high-leverage situations, which is what is calculated by stuff rate. This will lead to Maye needing to use his legs around the goal-line, hopefully scampering into the end-zone at a nice +320 price on FanDuel. Drake Maye to Throw an Interception (-120) FanDuel While Maye only threw an interception in half his games this season, he did throw one in two of three playoff games, and overall threw a pick in eight of his last 13 games. Maye was one of the best deep pa sers in the NFL this year, but part of challenging teams deep means you are putting the ball in harms way, which can lead to more turnovers. Maye, and the Patriots in general, also benefitted from the easiest strength of schedule in the entire NFL. That led to the Patriots playing in a lot of blowouts and situations where Maye could play it safer. If you only look at games in which the final score was within 14 points, which happened 14 times this year for the Patriots, Maye threw an interception in nine of those 14 games. He only threw a pick in one of six games that the Patriots won by 15+ points. Regardle s of your thoughts on who wins this game, it should at least be a relatively close game throughout and never a situation where the Patriots are salting away a lead. On the the other side of the field, part of what made the Seahawks defense so good was their ability to take the ball away. 63% of QBs against them threw at least one interception, including six of the last eight. The only QB to not throw an interception against the Seahawks since November 30th was Matthew Stafford, who did not throw an interception in any of his three games against them. So, this means that of the 16 games not against the Rams, 13 quarterbacks threw interceptions against the Seahawks. They are an opportunistic defense that should be able to force Maye into one errant throw that results in a pick. Austin Gomber Jersey